Raila Odinga’s political star is plummeting, — and fast — even as the 2017 poll nears.
The question is what is left of the old man? The events of the past few weeks and specifically the intrinsic revolt in Cord signal a weakened opposition, one that will be indubitably white-washed by Jubilee in 2017. Jubilee may have tactfully engineered this revolt from a safe distance and there is no doubt that Raila has lost grip of the Western voting bloc.
It will be remembered that in 2013, Musalia Mudavadi double-crossed ‘Baba’ and denied him what would have been a dramatic runoff. And before the dust has settled, enters Ababu Namwamba and Moses Wetangula. The two, like Mudavadi, may be the candidates to cause ‘Baba’ distress this time round.
It is worth noting that without the Western voting bloc, Raila’s political career is as good as over. But how can Baba reinvent himself and pull a shocker amid all these uncertainties? To earn himself reverence and statesmanship in the eyes of Kenya’s masses, Raila must contrive an exit strategy that shall leave his nemesis with envy and veneration.
As incredible as it sounds, Baba can irrevocably alter Kenya’s political landscape by running for Nairobi Governor and loaning his killer ‘tosha’ bullet to a fresh candidate — Musalia Mudavadi being the most preferable and deputised by the tried and tested Kalonzo Musyoka
Of course it would be a monumental task taming Evans Kidero, but he probably could do a better job at the Treasury. Undoubtedly, denying him the ODM ticket is akin to incapacitating him politically, but truth be told, he is the most uninspiring leader Nairobi has seen in the recent times. Fortunately for him, and unfortunately for ODM, his vast resources cannot be wished away.
With Raila controlling the Capital City as Governor, Parliament, Senate and the Council of Governors, City Hall would be transformed to a Mini-State House. Here, all manner of political strategies to unseat Jubilee and finish the witty William ahead of 2022 would be conceived. Further, Raila would be well positioned to ask for at least mkate kwota through espionage.
Yes, Raila will not be president. But he has the opportunity of creating one, just like he did in 2002 when he rallied the Rainbow Alliance behind Mwai Kibaki.
With a Mudavadi as the ODM candidate, Ababu Namwamba would be given ‘adabu’ and regret playing with his ‘fathers’ testicles! Wetang’ula, on the other hand, would be assured of something big in Government.
In one clean masterstroke, the opposition will have locked down Western, Nyanza and parts of Rift Valley where William Ruto is braving simmering defiance machinated by Baringo Senator Gideon Moi and Governor Isaac Ruto. With Kalonzo Musyoka in the fold as the deputy president, the scheme shall muddle Jubilee’s prospects in Ukambani. Considering Charity Ngilu could be fermenting revenge over her perceived betrayal by Jubilee’s auxiliaries, the Kamba vote will no doubt be indisputably assured. Nevertheless, this will be far from the required muscle to win against a strengthened Jubilee coupled with massive state resources available to the incumbent. But it will certainly force a dusty runoff.
And to woo back North Eastern region that irresistibly preferred Raila over Kibaki in 2007, Mudavadi could pick one of their men to replace the acerbic Aden Duale as Leader of Majority in his Parliament. Ameru would be courted with powerful positions in Government, besides promises to rejuvenate the miraa business which is on the death bed.
Coast, which has devoutly supported ‘Baba’ in the past, could be cemented with two or three Cabinet posts. Make no mistake. Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho is a fortress. The recent defections are just on paper.
The fall back strategy, lest Jubilee’s infamous tyranny of numbers survived this ‘coup de grace’, would be dramatic.
Proposed amendments to the electoral law requiring the first runners up of a presidential poll and his running mate to join Parliament automatically would come in handy for Mudavadi and Kalonzo. The duo would find their way back to the August House and lead a political barrage on Jubilee, employing their numerical strength to harangue Jubilee.
Agwambo is not done
Don’t be cheated. Agwambo is yet to exhaust his proverbial nine lives. Yes, he can dramatically turn tables with a ‘ni yetu’ slogan depicting an ‘inclusive government’ away from the ‘two tribes’ that have ‘owned’ Statehouse since independence. Such a call would ‘unite Kenyans’ and the proponents of ‘status quo’ would be cornered.
We would witness a repeat of 2002 — and dance to unbwogable tunes. Nothing can coalesce other regions against Jubilee than Ruto’s persistent derision of other leaders, and the 2022 ‘kurudisha mkono’ theory which is hogwash and delusional.
Jubilee should be cautious; Agwambo doesn’t fall without a fight. The moment he digs in for his last battle, a storm of inconceivable magnitude shall raise. A ‘Tsunami’ could be on the way.
Mwangi X Muthiora is a blogger and a political commentator.