ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi — the inspiration behind NASA — and his think tanks say ODM boss Raila Odinga is unlikely to defeat President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The ANC strategy document argues the best ticket is Mudavadi for President, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as his running mate — and Raila backing both of them.
The document was presented to the NASA Coordinating Committee and obtained exclusively by the Star.
The Mudavadi wing warns that Jubilee is still ahead of NASA, according to analysis of the latest voter registration data.
The ANC document titled Crunching Numbers 2017 says NASA trails Jubilee in the IEBC vote count by more than 100,000 votes. It puts NASA’s numbers at 7,868,373 voters to Jubilee’s 7,951,008.
Of these, 4.12 million voters are in 10 swing counties, the strategy paper says.
“This leads us to the conclusions that to use the 2013 elections outcome to determine the NASA 2017 tickets would be to court defeat,” Mudavadi’s team argues.
The strategy says the NASA combination that can remove Uhuru must be able to:
1 ) Increase voter turnout in NASA strongholds by 95 per cent;
2 ) Raid as much as 40 per cent of the votes from Jubilee bastions;
3 ) Win over 60 per cent of the vote in swing counties;
4 ) Create the least voter resentment and apathy in NASA-controlled regions.
“Our computation reveals the ticket likely to achieve [these goals] is Mudavadi’s — backed by Raila to reduce depression of turnout in NASA strongholds — and has Kalonzo for running mate to prevent loss of 2013 advantage,” the paper concludes.
However, it’s said that when the 12-member National Coordinating committee finally voted, eight members endorsed Raila as the presidential candidate with Kalonzo as his running mate.
Part of that proposal or deal is to create the position of chief minister, equivalent to a powerful Prime Minister, which would be given to Mudavadi.
Ford leader Moses Wetang’ula would become influential Speaker of the National Assembly, currently the third most powerful position after the President and Deputy President.
However, the final decision will be made by the four principals at a retreat from April 15-18.
Some ANC leaders have denied the existence of any such deal.
“Kenyans should ignore such misleading information and remain steadfast in trying to unite the majority of Kenyans in NASA,” ANC secretary general Godfrey Osotsi said.
However Siaya Senator James Orengo, an NCC co-chair, confirmed on Thursday they have indeed handed over their report to the principals.
According to Musalia team analysis, only their boss has the potential to raid Jubilee counties and convert battlegrounds into NASA zones.
“He [Raila] hasn’t much space of filling the deficit by either raiding Jubilee strongholds or turning battlegrounds into NASA strongholds,” the strategy paper says.
Musalia was represented on the NASA technical committee by ex-Mumias Sugar chairman Dan Ameyo.
In the NCC, he was represented by Nambale MP Sakwa Bunyasi and ex-Cabinet minister Kipruto Kirwa.
Ironically, however, several opinion polls have indicated Raila is more popular in Western and Jubilee turf than the other three NASA captains.
A recent poll by the Star’s research department indicated Raila is most preferred in Kiambu, Murang’a, Nakuru, Bomet and Uasin Gishu. For instance, 44 per cent of respondents in Murang’a said Raila was NASA’s best pick, followed by Kalonzo at 15 per cent.
Only six per cent backed Mudavadi.
The ANC strategy paper says Mudavadi would trigger the least voter apathy in NASA political turf.
They name seven counties — Siaya, Homa Bay, Turkana, Makueni, Kitui, Machakos and Kilifi with a total 3,149,109 votes — as the only regions where voters could be apathetic about Mudavadi.
However, the document says Raila’s candidacy could result in voter apathy in eight counties with 3,730,615 votes. These are Vihiga, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Makueni, Machakos, Kwale and Kitui.
The strategy indicates a Kalonzo candidacy could cause voter apathy in a record 12 NASA-dominant counties. These are Kisumu, Migori, Siaya, Homa Bay, Mombasa, Turkana, Vihiga, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Kisii and Nyamira.
Wetang’ula’s candidacy, the strategy indicates, could cause voter apathy in 15 of the NASA-dominated counties.
The document also says Mudavadi can deliver a clean win in eight of 10 battleground counties.
Raila can win only six and Kalonzo four, the paper says.
The Mudavadi strategy indicates Wetang’ula fails to failing to capture various scenarios involving the Bungoma senator.
The strategists write “unknown” for Wetang’ula.
The battlegrounds, according to the paper, are Trans Nzoia, Tana River, Marsabit, Wajir, Narok, Kajiado, Lamu, Garissa, Nairobi and Samburu.
However, the document concludes NASA has the potential of getting 70 per cent vote in Trans Nzoia, Narok and Kajiado.
In Nairobi, Lamu, Samburu and Tana River, the document says NASA can secure 50 per cent of the vote.
In Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit, the Mudavadi team says NASA can only secure 35 per cent.
They have classified Isiolo, West Pokot and Mandera as Jubilee strongholds.
ANC strategists say NASA can secure up to 40 per cent in Bomet with support of Governor Isaac Rutto’s CCM.