Raila Odinga can’t beat Uhuru – Musalia Mudavada

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ODM Party Leader Raila Odinga address the youth during a meeting at Orange house on March 28, 2017. Photo/JACK OWUOR

ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi — the inspiration behind NASA — and his think tanks say ODM boss Raila Odinga is unlikely to defeat President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The ANC strategy document argues the best ticket is Mudavadi for President, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as his running mate — and Raila backing both of them.

The document was presented to the NASA Coordinating Committee and obtained exclusively by the Star.

The Mudavadi wing warns that Jubilee is still ahead of NASA, according to analysis of the latest voter registration data.

The ANC document titled Crunching Numbers 2017 says NASA trails Jubilee in the IEBC vote count by more than 100,000 votes. It puts NASA’s numbers at 7,868,373 voters to Jubilee’s 7,951,008.

Of these, 4.12 million voters are in 10 swing counties, the strategy paper says.

“This leads us to the conclusions that to use the 2013 elections outcome to determine the NASA 2017 tickets would be to court defeat,” Mudavadi’s team argues.

The strategy says the NASA combination that can remove Uhuru must be able to:

1 ) Increase voter turnout in NASA strongholds by 95 per cent;

2 ) Raid as much as 40 per cent of the votes from Jubilee bastions;

3 ) Win over 60 per cent of the vote in swing counties;

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4 ) Create the least voter resentment and apathy in NASA-controlled regions.

“Our computation reveals the ticket likely to achieve [these goals] is Mudavadi’s — backed by Raila to reduce depression of turnout in NASA strongholds — and has Kalonzo for running mate to prevent loss of 2013 advantage,” the paper concludes.

However, it’s said that when the 12-member National Coordinating committee finally voted, eight members endorsed Raila as the presidential candidate with Kalonzo as his running mate.

Part of that proposal or deal is to create the position of chief minister, equivalent to a powerful Prime Minister, which would be given to Mudavadi.

Ford leader Moses Wetang’ula would become influential Speaker of the National Assembly, currently the third most powerful position after the President and Deputy President.

However, the final decision will be made by the four principals at a retreat from April 15-18.

Some ANC leaders have denied the existence of any such deal.

“Kenyans should ignore such misleading information and remain steadfast in trying to unite the majority of Kenyans in NASA,” ANC secretary general Godfrey Osotsi said.

However Siaya Senator James Orengo, an NCC co-chair, confirmed on Thursday they have indeed handed over their report to the principals.

According to Musalia team analysis, only their boss has the potential to raid Jubilee counties and convert battlegrounds into NASA zones.

“He [Raila] hasn’t much space of filling the deficit by either raiding Jubilee strongholds or turning battlegrounds into NASA strongholds,” the strategy paper says.

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Musalia was represented on the NASA technical committee by ex-Mumias Sugar chairman Dan Ameyo.

In the NCC, he was represented by Nambale MP Sakwa Bunyasi and ex-Cabinet minister Kipruto Kirwa.

Ironically, however, several opinion polls have indicated Raila is more popular in Western and Jubilee turf than the other three NASA captains.

A recent poll by the Star’s research department indicated Raila is most preferred in Kiambu, Murang’a, Nakuru, Bomet and Uasin Gishu. For instance, 44 per cent of respondents in Murang’a said Raila was NASA’s best pick, followed by Kalonzo at 15 per cent.

Only six per cent backed Mudavadi.

The ANC strategy paper says Mudavadi would trigger the least voter apathy in NASA political turf.

They name seven counties — Siaya, Homa Bay, Turkana, Makueni, Kitui, Machakos and Kilifi with a total 3,149,109 votes — as the only regions where voters could be apathetic about Mudavadi.

However, the document says Raila’s candidacy could result in voter apathy in eight counties with 3,730,615 votes. These are Vihiga, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Makueni, Machakos, Kwale and Kitui.

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The strategy indicates a Kalonzo candidacy could cause voter apathy in a record 12 NASA-dominant counties. These are Kisumu, Migori, Siaya, Homa Bay, Mombasa, Turkana, Vihiga, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, Kisii and Nyamira.

Wetang’ula’s candidacy, the strategy indicates, could cause voter apathy in 15 of the NASA-dominated counties.

The document also says Mudavadi can deliver a clean win in eight of 10 battleground counties.

Raila can win only six and Kalonzo four, the paper says.

The Mudavadi strategy indicates Wetang’ula fails to failing to capture various scenarios involving the Bungoma senator.

The strategists write “unknown” for Wetang’ula.

The battlegrounds, according to the paper, are Trans Nzoia, Tana River, Marsabit, Wajir, Narok, Kajiado, Lamu, Garissa, Nairobi and Samburu.

However, the document concludes NASA has the potential of getting 70 per cent vote in Trans Nzoia, Narok and Kajiado.

In Nairobi, Lamu, Samburu and Tana River, the document says NASA can secure 50 per cent of the vote.

In Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit, the Mudavadi team says NASA can only secure 35 per cent.

They have classified Isiolo, West Pokot and Mandera as Jubilee strongholds.

ANC strategists say NASA can secure up to 40 per cent in Bomet with support of Governor Isaac Rutto’s CCM.

Source link-the-star.co.ke

5 COMMENTS

  1. Beware of over-confidence before your eggs are hatched. Sometimes the fox gets into the hen house and in the morning there are no eggs to be hatched. Donald Trump came from behind to win over Hillary Clinton, much to her shock adn proably most of Africa’s shock. Keep up vigilence and hard work until the votes are counted.

  2. Not that I’m saying that Hillary was over-confident, but I think her followers were. They spent more time laughing and throwing insults at Donald than getting out the vote because they were over-confident and underestimated their opponent. And the stuff about the Russkies ruining the election, well all I have to say about that is probably it wasn’t because of Donald, but despite Donald since the Russkies had it in for Hillary because she took back the Reset Button. And that perhaps could be considered welching on a deal. But of course she had her reasons as U.S Secy. of State to do that and they were probably good reasons. All I’m saying is that it got her into a tight spot with some of her newfound enemies; but we are not talking about Hillary and Donald. We are talking about Musavadi, O’Raila, and Uhuru. So, Kenyan politics is far more intriguing and down and dirty than U.S Politics. But I hpe things go well and may the best man (or where are the women anyway in Kenyan politics this time?) wins. Maybe it’s time for a woman to step up if these men can’t stop their dirty dealing. Oh, that’s right, in Kenya women may not talk in the presence of a man who is complimenting himself on how great he is and how many wives he can get if he wants to, which is an unlimited number and which means no money or less money for all the other ones. Sorry I forgot about that little squiggle. If women don’t tow the line in Parliament, they will be outvoted by the macho pauchos (that means men with fat tummies who marry addl. women who want their fat wallets). So, what will you leave your millions of children who have no father around? Of course, men never think about that. At least the religious pretenders don’t.

  3. POLE SANA,
    I meant to write Mudavadi, Raila, and Uhuru in last post, but there was no ‘Reset Button’; someone took it away.

    Here’s to having a Brilliant Political Day! Won’t you?

  4. Oh, pole sana again,
    I forgot to define ‘religious pretenders.’ Those are MPs who continue to marry women in church even though they have married other women in church to whom they are still married. I mean how many church weddings is one man entitled to? I would say that the church leaders had better check out these men before they keep marrying then to other women. At lesat ask them if they are married to someone else in the presence of a witness who has known them for a long time. If both lie, then kick them out of the church until they repent…I mean you kick women who get pregnant by religious pretentious men out of the church, who why are you punushing the women and not the men? That is called pretetious religion and religous pretenders. That should be the lot of religious pretenders unless they repent and go back to their rightful wife–the one they married first (or if they just can’t do that because of their macho egos and maucho pauchos, they should at least allow that long-suffering woman they married originally to find another husband, which means divorcing her and giving her alimony until she remarries. Oh, I forgot that is only the right os men to marry others, not women. Women have no (0) equal rights in Kenya, only men have rights. Women are “0” with negative rights. And worse, they are not allowed to say anything about that wretched position. Since the women are close to half of the population, perhaps they should form a political party or at least vote for the man or woman who will get them more rights (equal rights)–meaning if men can marry endlessly then the women they leave behind should be supported by the maucho paucho religous pretenders until they stop their wicked behavior. Sometimes women behave wickedly as well by marrying these mauch pauchos for their money. But honey, you and your babies won’t get any money when they marry another honey. Only the current honey gets the money. You should know that becaue you can’t stop the wanderlust of a religious pretender who has no moral compass or control of himself for that matter. So, why are these kind of guys in charge of the cuntry then? We are the ones who vote for them.

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