Preliminary results from Uganda’s Electoral Commission suggest that President Yoweri Museveni is on track for a landslide victory in the 2026 presidential election. If this is confirmed, the result would secure him an unprecedented seventh term in office. This would also extend his four-decade rule.
With 45% to 59% of polling stations reported so far, early tallies show Museveni, the candidate of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), commanding between 75% and 76.25% of the vote, translating to approximately 3.9 million to 5.1 million ballots.
His main challenger, opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine) of the National Unity Platform (NUP), is trailing significantly with 19.8% to 20.7%. This is equivalent to about 1.3 million to 1.4 million votes. Other candidates remain far behind. For example, Nathana Nandala Mafabi has 2.12%. Additionally, former presidential aspirant Mugisha Muntu has just 0.56% of the vote.
If confirmed, the result would allow the 81-year-old Museveni—Africa’s second-longest-serving leader—to extend his presidency beyond 40 years. He first took power in 1986 after a guerrilla war.
Tension, Security Crackdowns, and Internet Disruptions
Despite the Electoral Commission describing voting as “generally peaceful,” the election has been overshadowed by heavy security deployment and internet disruptions. In addition, there are reports of forceful crowd control in Kampala and other urban centers.
On January 16, 2026, the U.S. Embassy in Uganda issued a security alert, warning of clashes between security forces and opposition supporters. The embassy reported that police had used tear gas and live gunfire into the air to disperse gatherings, particularly in areas perceived to be strongholds of Bobi Wine.
As in previous election cycles, Uganda experienced a partial internet blackout and social media restrictions. The government says such measures are necessary to prevent misinformation and unrest. However, critics argue that these measures undermine free and fair elections.
Opposition Rejects Preliminary Results
Bobi Wine’s camp has already raised concerns over possible vote manipulation, intimidation of voters, and irregularities at polling stations. These allegations have historically accompanied Uganda’s elections.
Opposition leaders accuse the state of using security agencies to suppress dissent, restrict political rallies, and tilt the playing field in favor of Museveni.
However, the Electoral Commission maintains that voting was conducted in an orderly manner. The Commission insists that final results will reflect the will of Ugandan voters.
What’s Next?
Final official results are expected within the next 48 to 72 hours. If Museveni’s lead holds, he will begin another five-year term. This would reinforce his position as one of Africa’s most entrenched leaders.
Meanwhile, international observers, regional bodies, and civil society groups continue to monitor developments amid fears of post-election unrest.
