The unexpected absence of Mojtaba Khamenei from major succession and loyalty rallies in early March 2026 has triggered widespread speculation about instability within the Iranian regime. Reports highlight Mojtaba Khamenei absent at key events, further fuelling concerns over the situation.
Mojtaba, who was reportedly named the new Supreme Leader following the death of his father Ali Khamenei, has not appeared publicly since the announcement of his leadership. His absence at key inauguration ceremonies and allegiance gatherings has fueled questions about the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Moreover, questions also concern the power dynamics inside the country’s ruling establishment.
Reports circulating in regional and international media suggest Mojtaba may have been injured during a series of U.S.–Israeli airstrikes known as Operation Roaring Lion. These strikes allegedly killed several members of the Khamenei family, including his father. While these claims remain unconfirmed by independent sources, the lack of public appearances has intensified speculation.
Cardboard Cutout Used at Allegiance Ceremony
According to multiple reports, a cardboard cutout representing Mojtaba Khamenei was displayed at one of the loyalty rallies where Iranian officials and supporters pledged allegiance to the new leader.
The unusual move has raised eyebrows among analysts and political observers. They see it as a sign of either serious security concerns or internal turmoil.
State media has suggested Mojtaba is currently in a secure and undisclosed location due to the ongoing regional conflict involving Israel and allied forces. Additionally, some sources claim he sustained leg injuries during the same strikes that reportedly targeted senior Iranian leadership.
Security Concerns and Possible Targeting
Officials in Israel have reportedly indicated that Iran’s new Supreme Leader could be considered a high-value military target during the ongoing confrontation.
As a result, any public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei could present significant security risks.
This security threat may explain why Iranian authorities have avoided presenting the new leader publicly during such a critical moment of political transition.
Signals of Power Struggle Within Iran
The rapid announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as successor—combined with his continued absence—has led analysts to speculate that powerful institutions inside Iran may be managing the transition.
Many observers believe the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could be playing a decisive role behind the scenes.
If Mojtaba is unable to appear publicly or exercise full authority, the IRGC may effectively assume operational control. At the same time, they may maintain him as a symbolic leader to prevent a political vacuum.
Risks of Instability in the Islamic Republic
The uncertainty surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei’s condition and visibility comes at a critical moment for Iran. Leadership transitions in the Islamic Republic are historically sensitive. Any sign of weakness can trigger factional struggles among political, military, and religious elites.
Without a visible and functioning Supreme Leader, Iran could face:
- Increased internal power struggles among elite factions
- Greater influence by military institutions such as the IRGC
- Uncertainty over Iran’s domestic and foreign policy direction
- Heightened regional tensions during an already volatile conflict
What Comes Next
For now, Iranian authorities have provided limited information about Mojtaba Khamenei’s health or location. The regime appears focused on projecting continuity and stability despite the unusual circumstances surrounding the leadership transition.
However, the continued absence of Iran’s newly named Supreme Leader raises serious questions about the balance of power in Tehran and the future trajectory of the Islamic Republic.
Whether Mojtaba eventually emerges publicly—or remains a largely symbolic figure—could determine the next phase of Iran’s political evolution.
