Uhuru Would Beat Raila by 49% to 28% If Poll Were Held Today
According to a poll by Ipsos Synovate commissioned by the Star, if presidential elections were held today, 52 per cent of those who voted in 2013 would vote for Uhuru.
This is compared to 29 per cent who would vote for Raila and the three per cent who said they would vote for Deputy President William Ruto.
Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, Peter Kenneth and Moses Wetang’ula would each get one per cent of the presidential votes if elections were held now.
The poll could be a morale booster for Uhuru, who has been under intense criticism, especially in the wake of the Garissa terror attack of April 2.
The poll, conducted between March 28 and April 7 with a sample of 1,964, shows that Uhuru would get 49 per cent of the votes, including of those who did not vote in 2013, while Raila would get 28 per cent.
Such a result would throw the country into a presidential run-off, as the constitution requires that whoever wins the first round must garner 51 per cent plus one vote.
A poll in November last year showed that Uhuru had consolidated his standing, with 48 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for him as president if an election were held then.
At the time, only 25 per cent said they would vote for Raila in the poll, which has a similar sampling error of +/-2.2%, with a 95% confidence level as this one.
Of the 1,440 Kenyans polled and who had voted in the 2013 elections, 117 (10 per cent) said they don’t know, are undecided or refused to answer.
The data show that 44 per cent of those who state that they are currently undecided, do not know or refuse to answer said they voted for Raila and his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka in 2013.
The report shows that 21 per cent of those who voted for Uhuru and Ruto also fall in this category.
The poll also shows that 85 per cent of Uhuru’s supporters say that they would stick with him, while only three per cent say they are looking at Raila as an alternative and 4 per cent at Ruto.
It adds that 75 per cent of Raila’s supporters are sticking with him, but 10 per cent have shifted to Uhuru, with four per cent looking at Kalonzo as an alternative.
The poll shows that 55 per cent of the respondents believe that Uhuru and Ruto would perform better at the next election if they are in the same political party.
It also shows that 73 per cent of Jubilee Coalition supporters would prefer the two in one party, while 35 per cent support the idea of a single party for Uhuru and Ruto.
The two have already declared that the newly formed Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP) will be their election vehicle in 2017, encouraging their parties TNA and URP to dissolve.