Defeated, Desperate and Isolated… Raila is Fighting a Losing Battle
Kenya has just witnessed its most transparent election in history. Every single observer called if free and credible, and for the first time ever, the election results are verifiable.
After a lot of pressure from Raila and the civil society, IEBC was forced to put in place an electronic system to identify voters and transmit results. This was after claims that in 2013, ‘2 million dead people’ rose from the dead and voted only for the president.
The real-time transmission was supposed to bring transparency to the process.
According to most people, the system worked almost perfectly. Results started coming in on the same night of voting, and within a few hours after close of the polls, we already knew who was to be president. Anyone who thought the trend on their screen would change was simply in denial.
And then Raila came with a surprise the next day. That the transmission system had been hacked.
Some people gave him the benefit of the doubt, until he released a 52 page log files documenting the hack. After quick analysis by IT experts, it was clear the logs were cooked, most likely on a mid-priced laptop. The statements on the file further did not reveal any hacking. In any case, they showed no hacking happened, since all login attempts failed. And then IEBC came out to reveal that the log files belonged to a different database type from what they used. Raila’s cooked files were of an MsSQL database while IEBC uses Oracle.
After the first lie failed to convince anyone, Raila returned with another allegation. That they had obtained the real results from a ‘whistle blower’ which showed Raila ahead. The arithmetic they provided was dismissed right away. For instance, the number of votes cast in Siaya exceeded registered voters. Nyamira and Nairobi had the same exact amount of cast votes. And that Raila obtained over 90% of the votes cast in Kirinyaga county (an undisputed Uhuru stronghold).
Raila and his Nasa entourage were shifting goal posts on an hourly basis, and on Friday they demanded that the announcement of the winner be delayed. They only managed to push the inevitable by a few hours, and on Friday night Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the winner.
On the election results being verifiable, all you need to do is download the publicly provided Form 34As and 34Bs and compare with what was transmitted.
If after this you believe Jubilee doctored 40,000+ forms, plus the over 200,000 for all other positions, all in a matter of 3 days, go ahead and call the agents whose signatures and phone numbers are indicated on the forms. Most polling stations had agents from different parties.
At this point if you believe Jubilee bribed nearly 100,000 agents, you need help.
But it was clear from the word go that Raila was not going to accept the results of the election, no matter how credible it was. I am inclined to believe that is his nature.
In 1997, 2007, 2013 and now 2017, Raila has claimed that the election was rigged. In short, the only time Raila saw a free, fair and credible exercise was in 2002 when he was on the winning side.
Right now, only the most brainwashed of his supporters believe anything he is saying. And there are signs that he is being isolated by the political class. His running mate Kalonzo Musyoka has stopped being vocal. Mombasa governor Hassan Joho has returned to Mombasa and pleaded for calm. Kisumu governor Anyang Nyong’o has told his people to return to work.
The only politicians standing with Baba are Luo politicians eyeing his position as the undisputed Luo King. The likes of James Orengo, Millie Odhiambo and Babu Owino.
At this point, you don’t need to be very sharp to know that Raila won’t be declared winner. No amount of demonstrations or looting will propel Baba to State House. Which is why all signs point to Raila trying to force a ‘nusu mkate’ government. It was predicted, and UhuRuto repeated many times during the campaigns that it won’t happen.
But Raila’s obsession with power has blinded him to think ‘nusu mkate’ is on the table.
Right now, even if Raila were to concede, he has already lost a lot of respect, locally and internationally. But he is not even stopping there. He has gone on overdrive to pee on the remaining pieces of his legacy.
Who will save this old man from himself?