A recent survey by CPS Research International on the recently formed Political Coalitions indicate that a coalition between Uhuru Kenyatta as the Presidential candidate for the Jubilee coalition, with William Ruto as his running mate is likely to beat a coalition between Raila Odinga as the CORD presidential candidate and Kalonzo Musyoka as his running mate by a 52.2percent to a 39.1percent in the 2012 general election.
The poll indicates that the Jubilee Coalition (URP/TNA/UDF) and CORD coalitions (ODM/Wiper/F-Kenya/other) are the most popular, with the Pambazuko (New Ford-Kenya/FPK/NVP) and PAO/ KNC coalitions registering a lot of uncertainty.
The survey was carried out between the 6th and 9th of December this year, sampling responses from 1,702 respondents from 40 counties.
The Poll also indicate that a coalition between Mudavadi as the Jubilee presidential candidate with Ruto as his running mate is likely to beat a coalition between Raila and Kalonzo by a small margin, that would lead to a run-off in which Mudavadi is likely to beat Raila.
It was however deduced that a Presidential race between Kalonzo and Mudavadi is likely to see Kalonzo emerge the winner.
However, a survey across the provinces on the preferred presidential candidates for the various coalitions put PM Raila Odinga as the most preferred CORD presidential candidate over Kalonzo and Uhuru over Musalia.
The research noted that there is likely to be a shift in the Central province vote, in case Uhuru does not vie for presidency, thus raising the number of votes received by Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua and KNC’s Peter Kenneth.
Speaking to the Media, CPS International’s regional Director James Mwangi noted the various issues that are likely to determine the outcome of the poll, among them a slow voter registration process, cohesiveness of the pre-election coalitions which will shape the voters’ confidence, the choice of flag bearers, and the principles of power sharing in the formed coalitions.