Kenyan Presidential Elections:The Tyranny of Numbers


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One constant complain that came out of the concluded Presidential Debate was from Hon. Raila Ondinga. In every response, he brought the issue of “Those who are talking about numbers”. One of the people who have featured in the Kenyan election discussion is one Mutahi Nguyi. He is arguable the most vocal analyst when it comes to the current debate. Though he has logical conclusions, his analysis of the  referendum was disqualified and his predictions have not materialized.

That said, the issue of numbers is not just smoke in the mirror, rather it is a theory that has become actualized in every part of Kenya. Today in Eldoret, a pastor friend of mine gave me a paper that was apparently taken from Hon Henry Koskey. Though he is an ODM big shot being the chairman, someone has done such a good job of propaganda that even Koskey’s son jumped ship and is a member of the jubilee coalition.
In this paper titled, “The Tyranny of Numbers”, every provence is analyzed and given a statistical mark of the projected voters, their tribal affiliation, and their assumed preferred candidate. On page two of the paper the writers declare, “If Kenyans vote on ethnic lines as they often do, Jubilee will win 53.6 percent as follows.”
JUBILEE: Gema 4, 643,147 + Kalenjin 1,705,742 + Others 1,335,998 = 7,684887 which is 53.6%
CORD: Luo 1,699,178 + Kamba 1,556,656 + Luhya 1,000,000 + others 1,335,998 = 5,591,822 which is 39%
AMANI: Luhya 860678 + others 200,022 = 1,060,690 which is 7.4%
This is the paper which Raila Ondinga is arguing against. It has apparently been photo- copied and distributed to thousands of people. I said mine was given to me by a pastor!
What is important is not the paper, rather it is the fact that it worries Hon. Raila Ondinga to a point where he complained about it during the debates. When I was studying philosophy, one of my professors reminded us of an important principle, that of reputation: “Rejoice in the Lord always and again I say rejoice.” “Truly Truly I say unto you…” He argued that when a statement has a subject that is repeated, it shows importance. When Hon. Raila Ondinga repeated the issue several times, it showed how much worried he is. If he is not worried about the numbers, he must be worried by the fact that Henry Koskey might himself be distributing the papers. And without knowing, he is spreading the Tyranny of Numbers around. By the way, the paper concludes with highlighted and capitalized words, “SUPPORT THE WINNING TEAM”
Teddy Njoroge Kamau (PhD), SYR Radio/TV, Director, International Desk. Diaspora Messenger Contributor.

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