ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi, who spearheaded the idea of NASA, inspires a 41 percent confidence level among all opposition leaders, an Ipsos poll suggests.
ODM leader Raila Odinga still attracts the highest level of confidence among opposition leaders at 51 per cent, the same poll indicates.
However, Mudavadi, who until recently had been considered a political has-been, ranks third, practically tied with Wiper chief Kalonzo Musyoka’s 42 per cent. His showing could change the calculus for selecting a joint presidential candidate and running mate.
Ford Kenya boss Moses Wetang’ula comes in fourth at 34 per cent.
The results were released yesterday as the opposition Super Alliance continues talks on how to come up with a single flagbearer. All four want to face President Uhuru Kenyatta on August 8.
According to the poll, the opposition attracts 52 per cent overall confidence among the respondents, compared to the Jubilee government’s 57 per cent.
Twenty-eight per cent said they have “a lot confidence” in Raila and 23 per cent said they have “some confidence” in him.
Among those with a lot of confidence in Raila, 66 per cent say they are NASA supporters, while five per cent back Jubilee.
The random poll of 2,057 respondents 18 years and above was conducted between January 9 and 26 in 42 counties, in both urban and rural areas. The margin of error was +/-2.16 per cent with a 95 per cent confidence level.
On the other side, President Uhuru Kenyatta rates 66 per cent from those who say they have “a lot of confidence” (42 per cent) or “some confidence” (24 per cent) in him.
Among those with a lot of confidence in Uhuru, 72 per cent say they are Jubilee supporters, while 10 per cent back NASA.
While 19 per cent told pollsters they have no confidence in Uhuru, 34 per cent said the same of Raila.
Following Raila is Kalonzo, with a 42 per cent confidence rating, including 16 per cent saying they have a lot of confidence in him.
Mudavadi follows at 41 per cent, with 10 per cent saying they have a lot of confidence.
Of Wetang’ula’s 34 per cent rating, nine per cent of respondents express a lot of faith.
NASA’s Raila, Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula formed a strategy team to help them select the ideal ticket to defeat Uhuru who defeated Raila in 2013.
Interestingly, the poll indicates four per cent of the respondents say the opposition is responsible for the country moving in the wrong direction. Two percent say the
national government is responsible for the wrong direction.
In 2013, Uhuru got 6,173,433 votes (50.5 per cent), Raila got 5,340,546 (43.7 per cent), Mudavadi got 483,981 (4 per cent).
Kalonzo was Raila’s running mate under Cord, while Uhuru partnered with William Ruto in Jubilee. According to the poll, Ruto attracts a confidence rating of 52 per cent, higher than any of the four opposition leaders.
A third (30 per cent) of respondents said they have a lot of confidence in Ruto, while 22 per cent said they have
some confidence in him.
NASA’s advisory committee is expected to come up with the best selection formula by the end of the month.
Some NASA proposals that have been reported publicly have attracted a lot of criticism from Jubilee side, which says the opposition is just creating jobs for themselves.
One proposal — apparently discarded by NASA parties — would reintroduce the positions of Prime Minister with two deputies and another Deputy President.
The opposition believes that if it stays united, it can marshal its combined numbers to dethrone Jubilee.
Jubilee aims to sell its development scorecard and use its previous tyranny of numbers from Mt Kenya region and Rift Valley to win.
It is also counting on defections in the opposition areas where several elected leaders have jumped ship.
The opposition has also harvested Jubilee defectors.
Jubilee has also been leading in voter registration exercise that concludes today.
By last week, the 19 counties where a majority had voted for Uhuru had recorded 873,876 new voters.
The 18 where a majority had voted for Raila had registered 837,404.
The other 10 counties, where Raila and Uhuru each got a substantial share, recorded 443,367 voters.
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