If Kenyans voted today, there would be new governors in Nairobi, Kirinyaga, Busia — and quite a few incumbents would be sent packing.
But Governors Hassan Joho in Mombasa, Alfred Mutua in Machakos and Paul Chepkwony in Kericho would comfortably retain their seats.
The August 8 General Election is 80 days away.
A new poll by the Radio Africa Group Research Department shows a good number of sitting governors will struggle to retain their seats.
Some newcomers appear to have a competitive edge.
The survey of 3,430 registered voters was conducted from May 3-14 in 28 counties sampled through random, multi-stage stratified methods using PPS (proportionate to population size).
In Nairobi, the survey indicates Jubilee nominee Senator Mike Sonko would defeat ODM’s Governor Evans Kidero by 49 per cent to 35 per cent.
Former presidential candidate Peter Kenneth would get nine per cent.
Six per cent of capital respondents said they were undecided. One per cent said they would vote for Miguna Miguna, ODM chief Raila Odinga’s former adviser,
In Kirinyaga county, former Devolution CS Anne Waiguru appears to have an unassailable lead at 80 per cent. Former Justice minister Martha Karua comes a distant second with 13 per cent. Governor Joseph Ndathi managesone per cent. Five per cent undecided.
Meru Governor Peter Munya’s reelection appears uncertain, with 40 per cent support, compared with 45 per cent backing Senator Kiraitu Murungi. Former MPs Gitobu Imanyara and Kilemi Mwiria scored six per cent and two per cent, respectively. Eight per cent were uncertain.
In Kiambu, the poll indicates Governor William Kabogo would lose to Kabete MP Ferdinand Waititu, 10 per cent to 74 per cent. Sixteen per cent undecided.
Busia Governor Sospeter Ojaamong also could be on his way out, garnering only 23 per cent, to 61 per cent preferringFunyula MP Paul Otuoma. Sixteen per cent undecided.
The survey indicates former Interior CS Joseph ole Lenku is set to cause an upset in Kajiado, winning 67 percent compared with Governor David Nkedianye’s 13 percent. Daniel Nina would get six per cent and George Kingori five. Undecideds five per cent.
Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto, a NASA principal, appears to be in trouble and could lose to Sotik MP and Jubilee Party nominee Joyce Laboso. The poll indicates Laboso would get 56 per cent, Rutto 44 per cent.
The same anti-incumbent scenario seems to be playing out in Nakuru where former NTSA boss Lee Kinyanjui leads with 51 per cent to Governor Kinuthia Mbugua’s 33 per cent. CCM’s Peter Koros would get four per cent. Undecideds 11 per cent.
Homa Bay Governor Cyprian Awiti also appears to be on his way out, scoring 35 per cent against Oyugi Magwanga’s 64 per cent.
In Mombasa, Governor Hassan Joho appears to have no competition and 80 per cent support. JP’s Suleiman Shahbal would get eight per cent, Senator Hassan Omar would win four per cent. Undecideds six per cent.
The race in Garissa appears too close to call. Governor Nathif Jama would get 22 per cent and his main competitors — Ali Korane and Bashir Haji scoring 14 per cent each. Undecideds 14 per cent.
In Machakos, Governor Alfred Mutua scored 54 per cent and Wiper’s Wavinya Ndeti 40 per cent. Undecideds five per cent.
In Nyeri, former director of Vision 2030 Secretariat Wahome Gakuru enjoys a massive lead of 82 per cent to Governor Samuel Wamathai’s seven per cent. Undecideds eight per cent.
In Muranga, Governor Mwangi Wa Iria takes 92 per cent to rival Jamleck Kamau’s five per cent. Undecided three per cent.
Uasin Gishu Governor Jackson Mandago has a comfortable lead of 55 per cent, with businessman Zedekiah Buzeki at 22 per cent. Undecided 11 per cent.
In Kakamega, Governor Wycliffe Oparanya has a strong lead at 78 per cent, with Senator Boni Khalwale at five per cent. Undecided 12 per cent.
Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka has 47 per cent support and nominated MP Wycliffe Wangamati 33 per cent. Undecided 20 per cent.
Kisumu Governor Jack Ranguma leads with 50 per cent, Senator Anyang’ Nyong’o takes 28 per cent. Undecided 19 per cent.
In Kisii, Governor James Ongwae is way ahead with 84 per cent, trailed by South Mugirango MP Manson Nyamweya at seven per cent and Senator Chris Obure scoring three per cent.
Kericho Governor Paul Chepkwony scores 91 per cent, unopposed. Undecided eight per cent.
Nandi Senator Stephen Sang scores 88 per cent in the governor’s race against former Minister Henry Kosgey, who has since backed down, scoring five per cent.
In Nyandarua, Governor Waithaka Mwangi leads with 48 per cent, followed by former head of Civil Service Francis Kimemia at 35 per cent. Undecided 18 per cent.
Kitui Governor Julius Malombe leads with 48 per cent, followed by Senator David Musila at 30 per cent and former Lands CS Charity Ngilu at 23 per cent.
Siaya Governor Cornel Rasanga appears safe with a 50 per cent lead, followed by Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo with 34 per cent and Senator James Orengo with 10 per cent.
In Makueni, Governor Kivutha Kibwana scores 81 per cent and businessman David Masika five per cent. Undecided nine per cent.
Narok Governor Samuel Tunai leads with 64 per cent followed by Narok West MP Patrick Ntutu at 22 per cent and former ICT PS Joseph Tiampati at three per cent. Undecided eight per cent.
Kilifi and Trans Nzoia have the highest number of undecided voters, which equal the score of the leading candidates.
Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi has 47 per cent, Kilifi North MP Gideon Mungaro takes 12 per cent. Undecided are 42 per cent.
In Trans Nzoia, Governor Patrick Khaemba has 36 per cent and Maurice Bisau 29 per cent. Undecided 35 per cent.
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