I thought about this question recently following the ruckus that the visit to theย USย by former Prime minister, Raila Odinga in the company of several governors caused withinย Kenyans living in theย US.
While Railaยยs supporters applauded, cheered and acclaimed everything he said during his tour, those who see him only as a trouble- maker were very disturbed by his presence in the Obama country and agonized at every statement he made.
I donยยt know about other countries but when it comes to theย US, I have some ideas as to how we would have voted. So, how would theย Diasporaย have voted? Pretty much like how their compatriots at home voted. I’d go out on a limb here and say that while Uhuruย Kenyatta would have taken Boston, Mass, Atlanta, Georgia, Seattle, WA and St Louis, MO, Raila Odinga would have bagged Dallas, Texas, Minneapolis, MN, Philadelphia, PA and New York/New Jersey area.
The so-called DMV areas of DC, Maryland and Virginia plus Delaware would have been serious battleground areas and would have gone whichever way. In this category would also be the Carolinas, Florida and even the expansive California. Let me explain why I picked the ones I have mentioned above. First, these are cities and states that have a substantial number ofย Kenyans, at the very least fifteen thousand.
Just like inย Kenya, the tyranny of numbers would have been very active here. Uhuru would have swept cities and states that are dominated by the Kikuyu while Raila would have won those whose dominantKenyan tribe is Luo and Kisii. In theย US, the most dominant tribe is of course, the Kikuyu.
They are very many in Massachusetts especially Worcester and Lowell cities. They are plenty in Atlanta especially the Marietta and Kennesaw cities. You also find them in large numbers in St Louis, Missouri and Seattle, Washington. They would have voted overwhelmingly for Uhuruย Kenyatta and William Ruto.
Raila would have won in Dallas, Texas because this city has a very large number of Luos. But, Texas is tricky in the sense that there is still a very large Kikuyu community here. In fact, some people think they can match or are even more than Luos. What would have tilted the balance in Railaรขยยs favour would have been the Kisii nation. They would have completely changed the game in terms of Luo-Kikuyu rivalry.
รย It is estimated that the Bagusii are the second largestย Kenyan community in theย US. Iรขยยve heard people joke that there are more Kisiis in theย USย than there are in Kisii itself. There are very many of them in Minnesota, Texas, New Jersey and Delaware.
Analysts believe that it is only the Kisii that are in a position to effectively check the Kikuyu. So, even though Uhuru would have majestically matched on across the states, he would have found the Kisiis ready to wipe out his tracks. Of course assuming that they would have voted with their Luo neighbours. It is because of this that many think they would have boosted Railaรขยยs win in Texas, Minnesota and the New York/New Jersey area. There is a large but quite Luo community in the sprawling rural areas of Pennsylvania especially in the Leigh High Valley. This community would have come in handy for Raila.ร
Initially I said the DMV area would have been a toss up but on second thought, I think it would have gone the UhuRuto way. There are very many Kikuyus and Kelenjins in the Baltimore area. Here, the tyranny of numbers would have been evident.รย In the end however, most of us here are just a microcosm of what obtains at home.
A while back, one of my readers fromย Kenyaย wrote to me a letter and asked me this question; had theDiasporaย been allowed to vote in the last General Election, how would they have voted especially in Presidential elections? Would they have also voted along tribal lines like we did back here inย Kenya?
By Chris Wamalwa
-standardmedia.co.ke
